The S&P 500 closed three consecutive weeks with gains over 3%: +3.36%, +3.55%, and +4.53%. Since 1950, this has happened only twice, in 1982 and 2020 (highlighted in yellow).

The classic bullish interpretation relies precisely on these cases - 12 months later, the market was up over 30%. But a sample of two observations seems insufficient for making decisions with real risk.

An extended analysis using rolling 15-day periods (i.e., series of 5+5+5 days no longer need to start on Monday and end on Friday) yields 8 similar cases.

The picture becomes more robust:

- After 3 months, the market rose in 100% of cases, with an average gain of +8.37%;
- After 6 months, also 100% positive outcomes, with an average gain of +15.2%.

The only "spoiled" case is 1987. A strong bullish trend ended in disaster amid a spike in rates and the crash on Black Monday, October 19, 1987. A telling example of how an external shock can break even a perfect momentum. Today, such a shock could come at any moment from the US President.

There is no certainty on the stock exchange, only probabilities.